首先來分析環氧乙烷。環氧乙烷價格在經過8月20日、8月23日兩次上調以後，目前進入盤整期，上游原料乙烯價格上行動力不足，對環氧乙烷成本面支撐走軟；相關產品乙二醇走勢穩中上行，對環氧乙烷心態存有支撐，另外區域產銷略緊也是支撐行情的關鍵；但近期下游訂單減弱，市場心態略顯波動。預計環氧乙烷近期將以穩定執行為主，漲跌空間均有限，需要關注廠家最新訊息指引。

再來看三甲胺。受8月14日魯西化工停車檢修的影響，三甲胺供應進入緊張狀態，市場價格陸續提高，目前山東市場主流生產廠家報價在7000元/噸左右。安陽九天化工7月底開車後日產量維持在100噸左右，華魯恆升產量持續穩定在240噸/天左右，但膽鹼廠商到華魯恆升提貨有不同程度的甩車現象（指生產緊缺提不上貨）。如果魯西化工受山東安全生產督察和國慶70週年閱兵環保壓力影響將40-50天的檢修期延長，屆時三甲胺價格會有大機率上漲預期。單就目前市場三甲胺供需的緊張程度來看，近期三甲胺仍有小幅探漲的預期和空間

二、 環保和安全生產層面：

近期中宣部召開新聞釋出會，據常務副部長王曉輝介紹，10月1日將在北京天安門廣場隆重舉行慶祝中華人民共和國成立70週年大會，相比慶祝建國50週年、60週年和紀念抗戰勝利70週年，這次慶典將規模空前，場面隆重，意義重大。雖然國家生態環境部目前尚未對國慶期間各地環保工作正式出臺檔案，但是根據以往的經驗和操作慣例，北京及周邊省區市都會加大環保的督察力度，一些生產型企業會嚴格按照國家的環保要求最晚於九月中旬之前進行停限產，以保障國慶期間的“閱兵藍”。三甲胺生產商華魯恆升、魯西化工、安陽九天以及河北膽鹼商（按以往慣例大機率會停產）、山東膽鹼商（影響面小）都會受到不同程度的影響，給氯化膽鹼的生產供應帶來不確定性因素。為堅決遏制各類重特大和爆燃事故發生，進一步強化企業主體責任落實，本月起山東已經組織16個督導檢查組進駐各市，進行安全生產方面的檢查，對督導檢查發現的非法生產行為，將會從嚴處理，從重處罰。三甲胺廠商作為重要的化工大戶，已經作為重點督查，是否產能會受影響我們將會密切關注。

享受生活20172019-11-09

首先來分析環氧乙烷。環氧乙烷價格在經過8月20日、8月23日兩次上調以後，目前進入盤整期，上游原料乙烯價格上行動力不足，對環氧乙烷成本面支撐走軟；相關產品乙二醇走勢穩中上行，對環氧乙烷心態存有支撐，另外區域產銷略緊也是支撐行情的關鍵；但近期下游訂單減弱，市場心態略顯波動。預計環氧乙烷近期將以穩定執行為主，漲跌空間均有限，需要關注廠家最新訊息指引。

Firstly, ethylene oxide is analyzed. After the price of ethylene oxide was raised twice on August 20 and 23, it is now in the consolidation period. The price of upstream raw material ethylene is insufficient, which weakens the cost support of ethylene oxide. The trend of related product ethylene glycol is stable and rising, which supports the mentality of ethylene oxide. In addition, the regional production and sales are slightly tight, which is also the key to support the market. However, in the near future, the downstream orders are weakened, and the market center is weak The state slightly fluctuates. It is expected that the stable operation of ethylene oxide will prevail in the near future, with limited upside and downside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the latest information and guidance of manufacturers.

再來看三甲胺。受8月14日魯西化工停車檢修的影響，三甲胺供應進入緊張狀態，市場價格陸續提高，目前山東市場主流生產廠家報價在7000元/噸左右。安陽九天化工7月底開車後日產量維持在100噸左右，華魯恆升產量持續穩定在240噸/天左右，但膽鹼廠商到華魯恆升提貨有不同程度的甩車現象（指生產緊缺提不上貨）。如果魯西化工受山東安全生產督察和國慶70週年閱兵環保壓力影響將40-50天的檢修期延長，屆時三甲胺價格會有大機率上漲預期。單就目前市場三甲胺供需的緊張程度來看，近期三甲胺仍有小幅探漲的預期和空間

Let's look at trimethylamine. Affected by the shutdown and overhaul of Luxi Chemical Industry on August 14, the supply of trimethylamine was in a tight state, and the market price was gradually increased. At present, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers in Shandong market is about 7000 yuan / ton. At the end of July, the daily output of Anyang Jiutian Chemical Co., Ltd. was maintained at about 100 tons, and the output of Hualu Hengsheng was kept at about 240 tons / day. However, when choline manufacturers came to Hualu Hengsheng to pick up the goods, there was a phenomenon of car dumps in varying degrees (that is, the production was in short supply and the goods could not be picked up). If the maintenance period of 40-50 days of Luxi Chemical Industry is extended due to the pressure of Shandong safety production supervision and the 70th anniversary of National Day military parade, the price of trimethylamine will be expected to rise at that time. In the light of the tense supply and demand of trimethylamine in the current market, the expectation and space for a small increase of trimethylamine in the near future

二、 環保和安全生產層面：

II. Environmental protection and safety production:

近期中宣部召開新聞釋出會，據常務副部長王曉輝介紹，10月1日將在北京天安門廣場隆重舉行慶祝中華人民共和國成立70週年大會，相比慶祝建國50週年、60週年和紀念抗戰勝利70週年，這次慶典將規模空前，場面隆重，意義重大。雖然國家生態環境部目前尚未對國慶期間各地環保工作正式出臺檔案，但是根據以往的經驗和操作慣例，北京及周邊省區市都會加大環保的督察力度，一些生產型企業會嚴格按照國家的環保要求最晚於九月中旬之前進行停限產，以保障國慶期間的“閱兵藍”。三甲胺生產商華魯恆升、魯西化工、安陽九天以及河北膽鹼商（按以往慣例大機率會停產）、山東膽鹼商（影響面小）都會受到不同程度的影響，給氯化膽鹼的生產供應帶來不確定性因素。為堅決遏制各類重特大和爆燃事故發生，進一步強化企業主體責任落實，本月起山東已經組織16個督導檢查組進駐各市，進行安全生產方面的檢查，對督導檢查發現的非法生產行為，將會從嚴處理，從重處罰。三甲胺廠商作為重要的化工大戶，已經作為重點督查，是否產能會受影響我們將會密切關注

Recently, the Propaganda Department of the people's Republic of China held a press conference. According to Wang Xiaohui, executive vice minister, the general assembly to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China will be held in Tiananmen Square on October 1. Compared with the 50th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China, the 60th anniversary of the founding of the people's Republic of China and the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Anti Japanese War, the celebration will be unprecedented in scale, grand in appearance and of. Although the Ministry of ecology and environment of the people's Republic of China has not officially issued documents on the environmental protection work of all regions during the national day, according to the past experience and operation practices, Beijing and surrounding provinces, districts and cities will increase the supervision of environmental protection, and some production-oriented enterprises will strictly follow the national environmental protection requirements to stop production and limit production no later than the middle of September, so as to ensure the "parade blue" during the national day. Trimethylamine producers such as hualuhengsheng, Luxi Chemical, Anyang Jiutian, Hebei cholinergic (according to the past practice, it is likely to stop production) and Shandong cholinergic (with small influence) will all be affected to varying degrees, which will bring uncertain factors to the production and supply of choline chloride. In order to resolutely curb all kinds of major and deflagration accidents, and further strengthen the implementation of the main responsibility of the enterprise, Shandong has organized 16 supervision and inspection teams to settle in each city since this month to carry out safety production inspection. Illegal production behaviors found in the supervision and inspection will be severely punished. Trimethylamine manufacturers, as an important chemical major, have been as a key inspector. We will pay close attention to whether the production capacity will be affected